• Jimmyeatsausage@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    I do think they’re trying, but its gotta be complex and error-prone to extrapolate like that, especially if there’s some confounding factor that correlates to the likelihood of receiving an answer.

    • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      Yeah but that’s why these people are professionals. Of course it’s complicated to do this but statisticians do it all the time. If there’s a known confounding factor (e.g. young people don’t answer calls) then it can be adjusted for. I know polling isn’t perfect but I find these points are less “I have a technical point about the problems with extrapolation/interpolation” and more “This poll doesn’t show what I want so there must be a problem”

      • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
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        8 months ago

        I think it is telling how difficult it can be to accurately predict based on polls and all other available data by how rare it is for a professional analyst to make an accurate prediction on something like a federal election 12 or 8 months away.

        • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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          8 months ago

          Really? What about 2020

          Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don’t need the precise number just the general lay of the land

          • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
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            8 months ago

            There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.

            • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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              8 months ago

              For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.

              I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it