• OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    3
    ·
    8 months ago

    Yeah but that’s why these people are professionals. Of course it’s complicated to do this but statisticians do it all the time. If there’s a known confounding factor (e.g. young people don’t answer calls) then it can be adjusted for. I know polling isn’t perfect but I find these points are less “I have a technical point about the problems with extrapolation/interpolation” and more “This poll doesn’t show what I want so there must be a problem”

    • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      8 months ago

      I think it is telling how difficult it can be to accurately predict based on polls and all other available data by how rare it is for a professional analyst to make an accurate prediction on something like a federal election 12 or 8 months away.

      • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        ·
        8 months ago

        Really? What about 2020

        Almost all correctly predicted a Biden win. We don’t need the precise number just the general lay of the land

        • whotookkarl@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          edit-2
          8 months ago

          There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.

          • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            8 months ago

            For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.

            I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it