• whotookkarl@lemmy.world
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    8 months ago

    There were plenty of predictions that got the winner right, but the amount that accurately predicted the ~51/47 are much fewer and I believe the rarity is an indicator that accurate prediction is not as clear and straight forward as some may expect even with statistical training.

    • OccamsTeapot@lemmy.world
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      8 months ago

      For me it’s not so much about the specific number and more “Who will win” and it definitely seems like polls do that quite well, even 8 months out etc as you mentioned before.

      I think expecting precise accuracy is quite a high bar. The only real test is the election if that is your stance, and by then it’s too late to do anything about it