• theodewere@kbin.social
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    1 year ago

    i don’t disagree with one bit of your analysis, i’m just not sure Shoigu will be enough once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways… popcorn time in any case, like you say…

    • athos77@kbin.social
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      1 year ago

      once Ukrainians start driving tanks down Russian highways

      I doubt the West will supply arms for a large-scale invasion of Russia. They’ve already made it clear that the stuff that they are supplying is to be used only in Ukraine, occupied Ukraine, and Crimea, and not anywhere in Russia proper. And Ukraine has been very careful to strike inside Russia only with weapons that do not come from Western governments, and to aim only at military and government targets inside Russia. I doubt a ‘real’ invasion will happen. Drone worries and border skirmishes, certainly; actual march-on-Moscow invasion, I doubt it.

      • theodewere@kbin.social
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        1 year ago

        nothing on this Earth is going to stop that Army… they will do what they want now… you just expressed every Russian’s delusional dream…

        Russians have some waking up in store for them

        • athos77@kbin.social
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          1 year ago

          And on a more realistic note, Ukraine can only continue to fight as long as they have effective weapons, in large numbers - numbers too large for it’s treasury to handle.

          They have to get the arms from somewhere. Their best bet right now is the West, which has large amounts of various weapons designed to fight the Russians.

          If they lost the support of the West, it’s possible they could cobble together enough materiel from other sources - countries that would welcome Russian weakness, or welcome Russia’s distraction, or see Ukraine as a buffer, or who simply want influence in the area. They could cobble together an arms supply from those sources, but the supply would be erratic, be less designed for interoperability, and would likely run out faster than the Ukrainians’ need. I mean, even the US is struggling to supply enough munitions to Ukraine, I’m not sure who can keep up with the needed supply if the US steps out.

          • theodewere@kbin.social
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            1 year ago

            that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone… it exists. it was armed and trained by NATO, that’s correct… it is basically a NATO force now… deal with it or not, they’re going to show you…

            there is no force anywhere in Europe that can stop that Army now… it doesn’t matter if you understand that or not… they don’t need help…

            • athos77@kbin.social
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              1 year ago

              You can have the best, most elite fighting force on the face of the planet. They still need weapons, they still need ammo, they still need grenades and rockets and artillery shells, their weapons and tanks and APC’s and drones still need servicing and replacements.

              In short, Ukraine needs an entire war-oriented production line and logistics/supply system. They have one now, courtesy of the EU, the US, and Ukraine’s other allies. A significant percentage of that military aid came from the US. The US is interested in helping Ukraine regain it’s full sovereignty including Crimea, and protecting it’s European allies. It has absolutely no interest in or appetite for, any real invasion of Russian soil. The US and the EU have repeatedly told Ukraine that Ukraine cannot use any materiel supplied by the US, the EU, or European nations, in any attack on Russia itself.

              Ukraine cannot ‘win’ an invasion of Russia with the weapons it currently has: they don’t have enough weapons or anywhere near enough ammo to do it. They may have enough for quick strike forces, but they certainly don’t have enough men to actually occupy Russia. Your dream of Ukrainian tanks rolling down Russian highways is just that - a dream.

              As for your assertion that “that is not an Army “being supported by” anyone […] they don’t need help”: here is a list of military retirement that the US has sent so far - it doesn’t even invite what Ukraine has received from other countries or companies. Please explain to me how Ukraine, even with the best army in the world, would win it’s war without the weapons and ammo supplied by it’s allies. And again, this is just a list of the US military aid, not the EU, not Australia or any of the other countries and companies sending supplies. U.S. security assistance to Ukraine between January 20, 2020, and June 27, 2023:

              [Please see my reply to this comment, it’s a long list]

              • athos77@kbin.social
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                1 year ago

                10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems

                70,000 other anti-armor systems and

                munitions

                1,700 Stinger anti-aircraft systems

                4,000 TOW missiles

                35,000 grenade launchers and small arms,

                with ammunition

                100,000 sets of body armor and helmets

                Thousands of night-vision devices,

                surveillance systems, thermal imagery

                systems, optics, and laser rangefinders

                C-4 and other explosives

                Explosive-ordnance-disposal equipment

                M18A1 Claymore mines

                Anti-tank mines

                Mine-clearing equipment

                Obstacle-emplacement equipment

                Medical supplies

                Field equipment, cold-weather gear,

                generators, and spare parts

                Chemical, biological, radiological, and

                nuclear protective equipment

                18 armored bridging systems

                160 155mm Howitzers and ammunition

                72 105mm Howitzers and ammunition

                47 120mm mortar systems

                10 82mm mortar systems

                67 81mm mortar systems

                58 60mm mortar systems

                203mm, 152mm, 130mm, 122mm, 120mm,

                and 25mm ammunition

                38 HIMAR systems

                60,000 122mm Grad rockets

                Precision-guided rockets

                Rocket launchers and ammunition

                154 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles

                4 Bradley Fire Support Team vehicles

                31 Abrams tanks

                45 T-72B tanks (via the Czech Republic)

                125 Stryker armored personnel carriers

                300 M113 armored personnel carriers

                250 M1117 armored security vehicles

                200 armored medical-treatment vehicles

                500 MRAP vehicles

                125mm, 120mm, and 105mm tank

                ammunition

                2,000 Humvees

                354 tactical vehicles

                100 light tactical vehicles

                68 trucks

                124 trailers

                10 command post vehicles

                30 ammunition support vehicles

                6 armored utility trucks

                8 logistics support vehicle

                89 heavy fuel tankers and 105 fuel trailers

                1 Patriot air defense battery and munitions

                8 NASAM systems

                20 Avenger air defense systems

                HAWK air defense systems and munitions

                Laser-guided rocket systems

                RIM-7 missiles

                Antiaircraft guns and ammunition

                Equipment to integrate with and sustain

                Ukraine’s systems

                9 anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition

                10 anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems

                High-speed anti-radiation missiles

                (HARMs)

                Precision aerial munitions

                6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets (could function

                as air defense)

                7,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets

                20 Mi-17 helicopters

                ScanEagle drones

                Puma drones

                JUMP drones

                CyberLux K8 drones

                Switchblade drones

                Phoenix Ghost drones

                ALTIUS-600 drones (can also be used for

                surveillance)

                Munitions

                2 Harpoon coastal defense systems

                62 coastal and riverine patrol boats

                Unmanned coastal defense vessels

                Port and harbor security equipment

                4 satellite communications antennas

                2 radars for unmanned aerial systems

                21 air surveillance radars

                70 counter-artillery and counter-

                mortar radars

                20 multi-mission radars

                Tactical secure communications systems

                Counter air defense capability

                Counter–unmanned aerial systems

                Electronic jamming equipment

                SATCOM terminals and services

                Commercial satellite imagery services

              • theodewere@kbin.social
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                1 year ago

                you’re working really hard… good luck with that…

                In short, Ukraine…

                i love that you actually used the words, “in short”… just to demonstrate what a troll you are…