Psst: a “mini-primary” is just an election among DNC delegates. You know, the thing they have to do anyway. And 99% of those delegates were named by Biden’s campaign, and will do what he directs them to do.
It might generate a televised debate, but all that will do is show off the back bench of the party for 2032 (or 2028 if Harris loses). If Biden backs out, Harris will be the nominee, and no amount of Progressive whining will change that.
Moderate Democrats are like vegetables, nobody really looks forward to them but they give you energy to fight Fascism. Eat your peas!
I think it’s likely Harris would be the nominee if Biden stepped aside, unless they are spooked by her polls, as well. But that is a lot of ifs, and really doesn’t bear much weight on the likelihood as I see it (and hate it) of Biden staying in the race and losing to Trump.
But yeah, that’s why it mostly hinges on Biden, because the DNC has rules in place to protect the presumptive nominee from a delegate mutiny.
And 99% of those delegates were named by Biden’s campaign
Biden personally nominated the DNC chair and appoints 47 (maybe 77?) voting seats, then the DNC votes to confirm the chair the incoming president appointed.
And there’s around 470 voting positions in the DNC.
So, Biden isn’t appointing the majority. But the vast majority are establishment Dems who agree with Biden 100% and would rather see trump as president than progressive leadership of the DNC.
If Biden backs out, Harris will be the nominee, and no amount of Progressive whining will change that.
Bruh…
In 2012 progressives voted for Obama despite him not being as progressive as he campaigned in 08…
In 2016 progressives held their noses and voted Clinton…
In 2020 we held our noses and voted for Biden…
In 2024 progressives will largely show up and vote D, whether it’s Biden, Harris, or anyone else. Just like what has been happening for decades.
What progressives have been screaming since 2019 is that Biden isnt really popular and he isn’t our best shot to stop trump. And we need to run our best bet that we’ve been saying since 2015.
The problem is moderates decided on Biden, and they’re used to always getting exactly what they want. That’s why they fight against Kamala so hard despite like 99% of her and Biden’s domestic policy likely being identical.
Moderates will still get what they want, they’re just not used to any kind of compromise inside the Dem party.
When people say Biden can’t win, were talking about the “non party” voters that allowed Biden to squeak thru last year. People that just “stay out of” politics and are the entire reason political campaign exist and Biden needs billions of dollars to beat Trump.
But instead of talking about how to get those votes like responsible adults, moderates just want a slap fight and for everyone to shut up and vote as told.
The big issue is, no metrics or data looks like Biden will win. I don’t think a president has ever been elected with an approval rating as low as Biden.
I don’t think you understand just how bad a 34% approval rating is for an incumbent…
You’re missing my point entirely. The party is not going to move further left all of a sudden. Moderates get what they want because there are more of them in the party, and also the the mythical “Swing Voter” who prophecies say will swing the election will be a moderate, once we find one.
And this “mini-primary” is not really what you think it is, the delegates to the convention are already set and pledged to Biden (for now). Those delegates will be voting on the nominee, who will either be Biden or his hand-picked successor. Those delegates will not vote for Mayor Pete or AOC, no matter how badly progressives want it.
Biden’s candidacy is not in jeopardy because of his moderate policies, it’s because time has caught up with him. If he backs out, his replacement will not be any less moderate. Get over it. There will be no progressive White Knight to sweep the country out of the Jaws of Capitalism.
Well, the poster I was replying to (who wasn’t you) was pointing out the mini-primary as an opportunity to avoid Biden and Harris and pick someone with no chance in the general election, but who passed their Progressive purity tests. I was pointing out that the “mini-primary” is just a rebrand of the same convention roll call among delegates that the party already uses, to make it sound more inclusive. And most of those delegates were picked by the Biden campaign.
What the heck dude, that’s not true. I think you may have misinterpreted me. I never said a mini primary was an opportunity for a progressive candidate to slip in there, or anything about some weird progressive purity test. Jeez. I mean, I’d obviously prefer a more progressive candidate, but I’m in agreement with you that if for whatever reason Biden steps aside, it’s almost certainly going to be Harris or another, (relatively) young moderate.
I said the mini primary was being spit balled in Congress, so the idea of Biden not being the nominee is not out of the realm of reality. That was my point, not that Democrats have to throw AOC or Buttigieg in order to win, or that it is even remotely likely they’ll do that. It’s not.
Ok. My bad on that. I lose track of all the unrealistic people here.
But regardless, the “mini-primary” is just branding for what the convention does anyway. Delegates have always picked the nominee. Some congressman floated that as an excuse to have a public debate, which will be held solely to show us all how awesome Harris is, and perhaps to help her pick her running mate. But the delegates will always have the last word, and they have already been chosen.
It’s all good. Honestly I think if a debate gets media attention for Dems, I’m all for it. Even if it’s just performative for Harris publicity, even though I’m not thrilled about her, I think the media attention and getting her name out there would be a good thing for November. Obviously that’s all a huge “if” depending on Biden being in or out, which if I had to guess, this whole conversation will be moot in 7 weeks.
the mini-primary as an opportunity to avoid Biden and Harris and pick someone with no chance in the general election
I agree that the few people who actually want Biden personally wouldn’t vote for a progressive, or even anyone besides Kamala.
It’s just they’re a tiny tiny subset of the Dem party
Do you remember the 08 Puma movement?
Not only were they so statistically insignificant that Obama didn’t lose many votes, his progressive campaign picked up so many traditional non-voters there’s a couple red states who only went blue for that election in the last 50 some years. Despite everything moderates claim about how people want moderate policy, what flips red states is young charismatic candidate running progressive campaigns.
So while I think it’ll be Kamala and her 29% approval rating, and I do think she has a better chance than Biden, neither are as good as bets of someone like Pete or Whitmere. Who still aren’t progressive, just too far left for the DNC.
However just the existence of a mini primary would pull whoever the candidate is (even Biden if he participated) to the left and help beat Trump in the general.
Psst: a “mini-primary” is just an election among DNC delegates. You know, the thing they have to do anyway. And 99% of those delegates were named by Biden’s campaign, and will do what he directs them to do.
It might generate a televised debate, but all that will do is show off the back bench of the party for 2032 (or 2028 if Harris loses). If Biden backs out, Harris will be the nominee, and no amount of Progressive whining will change that.
Moderate Democrats are like vegetables, nobody really looks forward to them but they give you energy to fight Fascism. Eat your peas!
I think it’s likely Harris would be the nominee if Biden stepped aside, unless they are spooked by her polls, as well. But that is a lot of ifs, and really doesn’t bear much weight on the likelihood as I see it (and hate it) of Biden staying in the race and losing to Trump.
But yeah, that’s why it mostly hinges on Biden, because the DNC has rules in place to protect the presumptive nominee from a delegate mutiny.
Biden personally nominated the DNC chair and appoints 47 (maybe 77?) voting seats, then the DNC votes to confirm the chair the incoming president appointed.
And there’s around 470 voting positions in the DNC.
So, Biden isn’t appointing the majority. But the vast majority are establishment Dems who agree with Biden 100% and would rather see trump as president than progressive leadership of the DNC.
Bruh…
In 2012 progressives voted for Obama despite him not being as progressive as he campaigned in 08…
In 2016 progressives held their noses and voted Clinton…
In 2020 we held our noses and voted for Biden…
In 2024 progressives will largely show up and vote D, whether it’s Biden, Harris, or anyone else. Just like what has been happening for decades.
What progressives have been screaming since 2019 is that Biden isnt really popular and he isn’t our best shot to stop trump. And we need to run our best bet that we’ve been saying since 2015.
The problem is moderates decided on Biden, and they’re used to always getting exactly what they want. That’s why they fight against Kamala so hard despite like 99% of her and Biden’s domestic policy likely being identical.
Moderates will still get what they want, they’re just not used to any kind of compromise inside the Dem party.
When people say Biden can’t win, were talking about the “non party” voters that allowed Biden to squeak thru last year. People that just “stay out of” politics and are the entire reason political campaign exist and Biden needs billions of dollars to beat Trump.
But instead of talking about how to get those votes like responsible adults, moderates just want a slap fight and for everyone to shut up and vote as told.
The big issue is, no metrics or data looks like Biden will win. I don’t think a president has ever been elected with an approval rating as low as Biden.
I don’t think you understand just how bad a 34% approval rating is for an incumbent…
You’re missing my point entirely. The party is not going to move further left all of a sudden. Moderates get what they want because there are more of them in the party, and also the the mythical “Swing Voter” who prophecies say will swing the election will be a moderate, once we find one.
And this “mini-primary” is not really what you think it is, the delegates to the convention are already set and pledged to Biden (for now). Those delegates will be voting on the nominee, who will either be Biden or his hand-picked successor. Those delegates will not vote for Mayor Pete or AOC, no matter how badly progressives want it.
Biden’s candidacy is not in jeopardy because of his moderate policies, it’s because time has caught up with him. If he backs out, his replacement will not be any less moderate. Get over it. There will be no progressive White Knight to sweep the country out of the Jaws of Capitalism.
I agree with that, and no one is saying any differently…
They should to maximize chances to beat Trump. But we all know that’s not the priority
Well, the poster I was replying to (who wasn’t you) was pointing out the mini-primary as an opportunity to avoid Biden and Harris and pick someone with no chance in the general election, but who passed their Progressive purity tests. I was pointing out that the “mini-primary” is just a rebrand of the same convention roll call among delegates that the party already uses, to make it sound more inclusive. And most of those delegates were picked by the Biden campaign.
What the heck dude, that’s not true. I think you may have misinterpreted me. I never said a mini primary was an opportunity for a progressive candidate to slip in there, or anything about some weird progressive purity test. Jeez. I mean, I’d obviously prefer a more progressive candidate, but I’m in agreement with you that if for whatever reason Biden steps aside, it’s almost certainly going to be Harris or another, (relatively) young moderate.
I said the mini primary was being spit balled in Congress, so the idea of Biden not being the nominee is not out of the realm of reality. That was my point, not that Democrats have to throw AOC or Buttigieg in order to win, or that it is even remotely likely they’ll do that. It’s not.
Ok. My bad on that. I lose track of all the unrealistic people here.
But regardless, the “mini-primary” is just branding for what the convention does anyway. Delegates have always picked the nominee. Some congressman floated that as an excuse to have a public debate, which will be held solely to show us all how awesome Harris is, and perhaps to help her pick her running mate. But the delegates will always have the last word, and they have already been chosen.
It’s all good. Honestly I think if a debate gets media attention for Dems, I’m all for it. Even if it’s just performative for Harris publicity, even though I’m not thrilled about her, I think the media attention and getting her name out there would be a good thing for November. Obviously that’s all a huge “if” depending on Biden being in or out, which if I had to guess, this whole conversation will be moot in 7 weeks.
I agree that the few people who actually want Biden personally wouldn’t vote for a progressive, or even anyone besides Kamala.
It’s just they’re a tiny tiny subset of the Dem party
Do you remember the 08 Puma movement?
Not only were they so statistically insignificant that Obama didn’t lose many votes, his progressive campaign picked up so many traditional non-voters there’s a couple red states who only went blue for that election in the last 50 some years. Despite everything moderates claim about how people want moderate policy, what flips red states is young charismatic candidate running progressive campaigns.
So while I think it’ll be Kamala and her 29% approval rating, and I do think she has a better chance than Biden, neither are as good as bets of someone like Pete or Whitmere. Who still aren’t progressive, just too far left for the DNC.
However just the existence of a mini primary would pull whoever the candidate is (even Biden if he participated) to the left and help beat Trump in the general.