Real wages are up for three straight years; they were unmoved or negative for nearly four decades before that. Your feelings about the economy don’t matter when the data all goes in the other direction
People are (sometimes willfully) confusing “the current status quo is fucked” with “there is no improvement resulting from the measures taken by the administration”. The former is true - the latter is not.
That entire political propaganda point is based on grabbing a nominal salary growth in 2023 that is trying to catch up to the inflation of 2021/22 (and the salary growth is already starting to tailing off) and adjusting to make a “real” salary growth using present day inflation which is half as much the one in 2021/2022.
It’s all based on a mathematical artifact that salary growth reflects inflation with a delay of about 2 years and just so happens last quarter of 2023 and first of 2024 are a sweet spot were 2y delayed inflation minus present day inflation yields the maximum value.
Extend those maths back 3 or 4 years and the picture is much worse but that can be “safelly” argued away by propagandists as being due to Trump. Well if that is due to Trump then so is the recent spike in salary growth since it’s pretty much a perfect match to the inflation of 2 years ago that was supposedly due to Trump.
It’s funny because the two charts I’ve linked, from the Fed, one for median wages and the other for inflation, together add up to quite a different image, leaving us with 3 possible explanations:
that chart your provided is bullshit
it’s the Fed’s own data that’s bullshit and your chart is right
they’re both right, and yours being average and the Fed’s being median, neatly proves the point I’ve been making that average wage figures are unrepresentative of the experience of most people because slary growth for top wage earners pulls the average up even whilst most people don’t see any of that wage “growth”
Curiously the comment on your chart about the values around the Covid period reinforce my 3rd point: the chart got a massive jump then because low earners lost their jobs much more than high earners, not because salaries actually went up.
Median wage reflects the wage of one person who’s exactly in the middle. The average of the middle quantile also adds ten million people on the left and right side
It’s actually not very different from the median real wages
You legit have no idea why rural Americans are so damn upset, do you?
Sure, fascism. But why fascism?
Breaks my heart to think of how Dems and Reps have completely abandoned so many of our fellow Americans, despite how deplorable and insufferable some/many may be
If you consider the conditions that led to fascism in Germany before the 2nd world war, you learn that there were significant economic worries that affected the average German.
When you look at what is leading to fascism in middle/rural America, you will find very similar, significant economic concerns.
Filmmaker Michael Moore was criticized for saying Trump had a very good chance of winning in rural areas because of how angry and desperate the average American living in those areas is, and yet he was right about Trump’s chances of winning and about the reasons why.
Fascism doesn’t spring out of nowhere. There are conditions that make it more likely to spread. Those conditions are greatly affected by domestic policy.
Lastly, it’s worth knowing that famous quote by JFK saying his family didn’t experienced any significant struggle during the great depression, which is infamous for being absolutely devastating for many Americans. That disconnect is likely happening again, except this time our leaders are either gaslighting us or are actively unaware of the problem. I’m not sure which is worse, or if it makes a difference.
Current status quo is the economy that’s better than ever
Every time I challenge this nonsense, that people are pushing that the economy is better than ever, they never back it up with anything. I don’t expect this to be any different. We’re kind of in uncharted territory and there is plenty of mixed emotion about the outlook for the economy.
Puts a graph of just the middle quintile, since 2019, and a quote from god knows when, of the super majority of people saying their finances are good or better…to prove that people are claiming the economy is better than ever.
Lol I can see why you provided just pictures rather than links because this seems blatantly deceptive.
Your twitter link is a picture of two people saying opposing things, one that it’s getting tight and another pointing out that the data doesn’t really support their claim. Neither is saying the economy is the best it’s ever been, and if we are reading into both of them, then it’s showing the “status quo” is a mixed bag.
From your axios link (which you took a picture of, conveniently leaving out the context) (bolding is mine):
By the numbers: 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as being “good,” including 19% of us who say it’s “very good.”
Neither number is particularly low: They’re both entirely in line with the average result the past 20 times Harris Poll has asked this question.
Literally outright saying that this is an average result. And you posted it as proof that they are saying the economy “is better than it’s ever been.” lol
Your final twitter link links to an economist article for the data, which is about how gen z is doing better than earlier generations at the same time in their life. It doesn’t say anything about the economy as a whole, however, it does note that people complain because the numbers do not account for the exploding cost of college and housing. After all, global house prices are close to all-time highs, and graduates have more debt than before."
It seems to me that you’re equating not being 100% pessimistic and point out anything positive as a claim that the economy is “better than ever.”
I appreciate you trying, but just like every time in the past I’ve seen this claim, you’ve not provided anything. Although “there’s plenty more” which probably means some more gish gallop coming.
Your feelings about the economy don’t matter when the data all goes in the other direction
Except its not “all the data”. Its “the data we’ve always used to measure this up to now”.
The disconnect is that classic measurements of national economic health used to reflect the earning and spending power of average Americans. So using the same basket of measures and things that can affect those was a valid approach. In recent years those measurements don’t reflect average Americans anymore. Inflation has eaten away at the value of savings impacting older Americans. High interest rates are now acting as a double whammy for young Americans that need borrow for higher education as well as first time home buyers, but the costs of both have risen sharply in the last 20 years. So while the high cost has been a problem, the now high interest rates are a force multiplier stepping on the necks of young Americans.
I don’t disagree that Biden’s actions have improved classic measurements. Those are still valid and useful for where they apply. I disagree that those measurements still reflect the experience of regular Americans. Thats a problem that extra economic measures should be included when looking at the experience of regular Americans.
This. Buying power of the average American has decreased drastically. If you worked for the last five years and your pay has changed you’ve technically made less money every year as the power of the dollar has diminished. If you’re on a fixed income it feels even worse.
There are plenty of problems with CPI, one of which is the very issue of “feelings”. Owners equivalent rent is absolutely irrelevant to actual rent costs. It’s just how much a homeowner says they would charge if they were to rent out their place. These are not the people renting out units…they’re just someone who happened to have enough money to buy a house. WTF do they know.
I hear you saying an apples-to-apples comparison to show a point is … somehow bad.
You’re gonna have to grow out of just thinking there are only two outcomes: “good” and “bad”. The world is more complicated than that. The classic indicators don’t reflect the modern average American experience anymore. They were chosen in a different time under different circumstances. They were chosen when a college education cost a couple of thousand dollars a year, a average blue color worker could buy a brand new car every two years, and a small house was easily affordable for a single income earner with the other staying at home raising kids. Clearly you can see how this is now out-of-date with modern American life.
They’re fine as a useful apples-to-apples comparison to national economic health, but today fail to show what average Americans experience.
Sometimes I just don’t know what people want.
Introduce some nuance into your worldview and that may help you understand.
Judging by the increase in prices reported by many as well as shrinkflation, Official Inflation Figures in the US might be very understated, which would make that “real” part of real wage rise be complete total bollocks, since a wage adjusted to a smaller inflation index value than reality is not in fact “real”. Considering that understating Official Inflation not only helps in political propaganda like the “real wages” one but also mathematically feeds to a higher GDP Growth figure (in simple terms: the unaccounted for inflation appear as “growth”) which is also heavilly featured in political propaganda, it’s pretty naive to think that there isn’t political pressure to “adjust” that figure down, especially in an election year.
Independently of that, it’s perfectly possible for the average real wage (which is what’s reported) to be going up whilst the median real wage (which is more representative of most people’s experience and is not what’s reported) to be stagnant or even falling: all it takes is for the top earners to be getting significant raises to pull the average up enough that it disguises everybody else not getting such raises.
PS: To add to my second point, here’s an interesting chart. Even though it’s an overall unweighted nominal (so, not real) value and it’s a 3 month moving average (so the effects are shown delayed) you can see a spike and subsequent fall towards the trend in 2023. Now look at this inflation chart and you can see that the median salary growth is delayed from inflation and never actually managed to be as high as the actual inflation. This actually brings up a 3rd point I hadn’t considered:
The salary growth is delayed from inflation, so what we saw in 2023 (and which is now slowing down as per the first chart) is salaries trying to catch up with the high inflation of 2021/22 (and failing) but the inflation by then was already much lower. Obviously if one completelly ignores the last 5 years (which is a common technique in political propaganda) and just calculates “real” wage growth from present day wages and present day inflation, the result will be positive, simply because salaries are still trying to catch up to the inflation of 2-3 years before. However if one adds up the median real wage growth of the last 4 years, the picture is significantly worse.
No you didn’t ask that, you asked why they would expect a bigger raise when inflation is around 3%. The answer is because they obviously think their job isn’t that terrible.
This is all about the disconnect between feelings and actual data. The question is how to get them back in sync. Some of that is time, but people will feel negatively as long as their media keeps telling them they are worse off.
For me it’s time. I know that be all objective measures I’m better off. It’s not just the overall stats but I got decent raises two years in a row. I still get hit with how bad inflation is. But a big part is that I stopped buying stuff for a couple of years. I cut back to really only make necessary purchases. Now that I have a little more available resources, and can make a few discretionary purchases, I’m hit by the last 4-5 years of inflation since I even looked. My comparison point is pre-COVID
But I think you can understand why three years of improvement after four decades of stagnation might not dramatically move peoples’ perception of the economy. Plus, are real wages up for everyone? Is it average real wages? Median? There’s a big difference. It’s entirely possible some people are experiencing much more real wage growth than others.
Edit: apparently a lot of you are confused. You seem to think that if wages are up for some, they must be up for all. That’s not how it works. Not everyone got a raise over the last three years. Some people did, others didn’t. Some people saw their income increase dramatically, some saw their income stay about the same, and some saw their income go down. And that’s true whether the incomes in question are measured in “real” (inflation adjusted) terms or are nominal figures.
Ok, I looked it up. Here’s what I found from investopedia:
Real income is how much money an individual or entity makes after accounting for inflation and is sometimes called real wage when referring to an individual’s income. Individuals often closely track their nominal vs. real income to have the best understanding of their purchasing power.
Now that I have an exact definition, explain how anything I wrote was a “dumbass question.” Frankly, I don’t think I’m the dumbass here…
That’s the crux of their question, not what real wages means.
If it’s defined by an individual then how is it calculated across the entire working class for you to say it’s increasing. Median, average? Are we all sharing in that growth or only the top?
Wage growth now is outpacing inflation, meaning we’re going in the right direction. But if you compare over a few years, many people have fallen behind and have a lot of catching up to do.
I’m sorry that some states are shitholes, with shitty people trying to make them shittier. I live in one too.
Low taxes, but low benefits to its citizens, so people don’t really want to live there. Poor healthcare, poor education, fewer opportunities for the arts and the things that make life worth livin’. It’s a cycle of poverty and despair, and it’s awful.
When I get money, I’m moving out. But I may never have enough money.
Come Oklahoma asshole better yet look up jobs here and see what they pay. It isn’t shit. Not outliner go look at fucking jobs and what they pay. All the data you need is right there.
NO ONE IS PAYING A FUCKING LIVING WAGE. Homeless is going up everything is but fucking pay. So full of shit. Show your data and not from propaganda machine that is mainstream media.
Tell me about it. It seems like no one looks at job postings to see what companies are actually hiring at.
If they do it’s selective to their profession, or across highly educated professions. Then they can argue “well, git gud scrub.” Completely ignoring how a gigantic portion of the population is stuck working those shit paying jobs.
The entire stock market is based off investor’s feelings so why shouldn’t that also apply to the rest of the economy when market performance is a primary data point when measuring how the economy is doing?
People’s feelings affect how they act. Those actions, collectively, can have an impact on the economy (recession spending can cause a recession), politics (especially with elections in 6 months), and society in general. As they say, “perception creates reality.”
Real wages are up for three straight years; they were unmoved or negative for nearly four decades before that. Your feelings about the economy don’t matter when the data all goes in the other direction
People are (sometimes willfully) confusing “the current status quo is fucked” with “there is no improvement resulting from the measures taken by the administration”. The former is true - the latter is not.
Current status quo is the economy that’s better than ever
Aren’t you asking for too much? Take a small win
Bollocks.
That entire political propaganda point is based on grabbing a nominal salary growth in 2023 that is trying to catch up to the inflation of 2021/22 (and the salary growth is already starting to tailing off) and adjusting to make a “real” salary growth using present day inflation which is half as much the one in 2021/2022.
It’s all based on a mathematical artifact that salary growth reflects inflation with a delay of about 2 years and just so happens last quarter of 2023 and first of 2024 are a sweet spot were 2y delayed inflation minus present day inflation yields the maximum value.
Extend those maths back 3 or 4 years and the picture is much worse but that can be “safelly” argued away by propagandists as being due to Trump. Well if that is due to Trump then so is the recent spike in salary growth since it’s pretty much a perfect match to the inflation of 2 years ago that was supposedly due to Trump.
Going back a few years just proves my point
Before COVID salaries were much worse than today when adjusting for inflation
It’s funny because the two charts I’ve linked, from the Fed, one for median wages and the other for inflation, together add up to quite a different image, leaving us with 3 possible explanations:
Curiously the comment on your chart about the values around the Covid period reinforce my 3rd point: the chart got a massive jump then because low earners lost their jobs much more than high earners, not because salaries actually went up.
Median wage reflects the wage of one person who’s exactly in the middle. The average of the middle quantile also adds ten million people on the left and right side
It’s actually not very different from the median real wages
You legit have no idea why rural Americans are so damn upset, do you?
Sure, fascism. But why fascism?
Breaks my heart to think of how Dems and Reps have completely abandoned so many of our fellow Americans, despite how deplorable and insufferable some/many may be
What? I don’t understand this post at all
Let me try and breakdown my thought.
If you consider the conditions that led to fascism in Germany before the 2nd world war, you learn that there were significant economic worries that affected the average German.
When you look at what is leading to fascism in middle/rural America, you will find very similar, significant economic concerns.
Filmmaker Michael Moore was criticized for saying Trump had a very good chance of winning in rural areas because of how angry and desperate the average American living in those areas is, and yet he was right about Trump’s chances of winning and about the reasons why.
Fascism doesn’t spring out of nowhere. There are conditions that make it more likely to spread. Those conditions are greatly affected by domestic policy.
Lastly, it’s worth knowing that famous quote by JFK saying his family didn’t experienced any significant struggle during the great depression, which is infamous for being absolutely devastating for many Americans. That disconnect is likely happening again, except this time our leaders are either gaslighting us or are actively unaware of the problem. I’m not sure which is worse, or if it makes a difference.
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Every time I challenge this nonsense, that people are pushing that the economy is better than ever, they never back it up with anything. I don’t expect this to be any different. We’re kind of in uncharted territory and there is plenty of mixed emotion about the outlook for the economy.
I can back it up
Puts a graph of just the middle quintile, since 2019, and a quote from god knows when, of the super majority of people saying their finances are good or better…to prove that people are claiming the economy is better than ever.
Lol I can see why you provided just pictures rather than links because this seems blatantly deceptive.
There’s plenty more of where that came from
I mostly get these from economy bloggers
Here are some links
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1786082197650465244
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_source=twitter
https://twitter.com/johanknorberg/status/1780638119156408480
Your twitter link is a picture of two people saying opposing things, one that it’s getting tight and another pointing out that the data doesn’t really support their claim. Neither is saying the economy is the best it’s ever been, and if we are reading into both of them, then it’s showing the “status quo” is a mixed bag.
From your axios link (which you took a picture of, conveniently leaving out the context) (bolding is mine):
Literally outright saying that this is an average result. And you posted it as proof that they are saying the economy “is better than it’s ever been.” lol
Your final twitter link links to an economist article for the data, which is about how gen z is doing better than earlier generations at the same time in their life. It doesn’t say anything about the economy as a whole, however, it does note that people complain because the numbers do not account for the exploding cost of college and housing. After all, global house prices are close to all-time highs, and graduates have more debt than before."
It seems to me that you’re equating not being 100% pessimistic and point out anything positive as a claim that the economy is “better than ever.”
I appreciate you trying, but just like every time in the past I’ve seen this claim, you’ve not provided anything. Although “there’s plenty more” which probably means some more gish gallop coming.
The vibes are recovering, is my point. They are still behind the actual gdp growth, real wage growth
People are complaining about things like eating out becoming more expensive, but it’s because we eat out more
https://twitter.com/RyanRadia/status/1787117076726861965
Except its not “all the data”. Its “the data we’ve always used to measure this up to now”.
The disconnect is that classic measurements of national economic health used to reflect the earning and spending power of average Americans. So using the same basket of measures and things that can affect those was a valid approach. In recent years those measurements don’t reflect average Americans anymore. Inflation has eaten away at the value of savings impacting older Americans. High interest rates are now acting as a double whammy for young Americans that need borrow for higher education as well as first time home buyers, but the costs of both have risen sharply in the last 20 years. So while the high cost has been a problem, the now high interest rates are a force multiplier stepping on the necks of young Americans.
I don’t disagree that Biden’s actions have improved classic measurements. Those are still valid and useful for where they apply. I disagree that those measurements still reflect the experience of regular Americans. Thats a problem that extra economic measures should be included when looking at the experience of regular Americans.
This. Buying power of the average American has decreased drastically. If you worked for the last five years and your pay has changed you’ve technically made less money every year as the power of the dollar has diminished. If you’re on a fixed income it feels even worse.
They seem to be pretty thorough
There are plenty of problems with CPI, one of which is the very issue of “feelings”. Owners equivalent rent is absolutely irrelevant to actual rent costs. It’s just how much a homeowner says they would charge if they were to rent out their place. These are not the people renting out units…they’re just someone who happened to have enough money to buy a house. WTF do they know.
I hear you saying an apples-to-apples comparison to show a point is … somehow bad.
Sometimes I just don’t know what people want.
You’re gonna have to grow out of just thinking there are only two outcomes: “good” and “bad”. The world is more complicated than that. The classic indicators don’t reflect the modern average American experience anymore. They were chosen in a different time under different circumstances. They were chosen when a college education cost a couple of thousand dollars a year, a average blue color worker could buy a brand new car every two years, and a small house was easily affordable for a single income earner with the other staying at home raising kids. Clearly you can see how this is now out-of-date with modern American life.
They’re fine as a useful apples-to-apples comparison to national economic health, but today fail to show what average Americans experience.
Introduce some nuance into your worldview and that may help you understand.
Peasants, We have increased your daily crumb rations by 1.2%. Be grateful for that.
However, we are reducing the size of crumbs by 7%
Are they? I got a 3% ‘raise’ again this year and that doesn’t seem like it’s keeping up with inflation. And yes yes get a different job, blah blah.
Two things:
PS: To add to my second point, here’s an interesting chart. Even though it’s an overall unweighted nominal (so, not real) value and it’s a 3 month moving average (so the effects are shown delayed) you can see a spike and subsequent fall towards the trend in 2023. Now look at this inflation chart and you can see that the median salary growth is delayed from inflation and never actually managed to be as high as the actual inflation. This actually brings up a 3rd point I hadn’t considered:
Your example is N=1
But inflation is also around 3% so why would you expect a bigger raise?
Are you seriously asking why someone would expect a bigger raise than just keeping up with inflation?
I’m asking why one person’s employment history matters when we can analyze 100 million
No you didn’t ask that, you asked why they would expect a bigger raise when inflation is around 3%. The answer is because they obviously think their job isn’t that terrible.
This is all about the disconnect between feelings and actual data. The question is how to get them back in sync. Some of that is time, but people will feel negatively as long as their media keeps telling them they are worse off.
For me it’s time. I know that be all objective measures I’m better off. It’s not just the overall stats but I got decent raises two years in a row. I still get hit with how bad inflation is. But a big part is that I stopped buying stuff for a couple of years. I cut back to really only make necessary purchases. Now that I have a little more available resources, and can make a few discretionary purchases, I’m hit by the last 4-5 years of inflation since I even looked. My comparison point is pre-COVID
Your statements about it matter as much as his opinion without sources. Not disagreeing or agreeing, just seeing two opinions and no facts.
But I think you can understand why three years of improvement after four decades of stagnation might not dramatically move peoples’ perception of the economy. Plus, are real wages up for everyone? Is it average real wages? Median? There’s a big difference. It’s entirely possible some people are experiencing much more real wage growth than others.
Edit: apparently a lot of you are confused. You seem to think that if wages are up for some, they must be up for all. That’s not how it works. Not everyone got a raise over the last three years. Some people did, others didn’t. Some people saw their income increase dramatically, some saw their income stay about the same, and some saw their income go down. And that’s true whether the incomes in question are measured in “real” (inflation adjusted) terms or are nominal figures.
Bro, go look up “real wages” before you bring some dumbass questions in here.
Ok, I looked it up. Here’s what I found from investopedia:
Now that I have an exact definition, explain how anything I wrote was a “dumbass question.” Frankly, I don’t think I’m the dumbass here…
“Is it average real wages? Median?”
That’s the crux of their question, not what real wages means.
If it’s defined by an individual then how is it calculated across the entire working class for you to say it’s increasing. Median, average? Are we all sharing in that growth or only the top?
Serious question: are they up higher than inflation if you adjust for the last three years?
Yes, that’s what real wages mean, adjusted for inflation
Wage growth now is outpacing inflation, meaning we’re going in the right direction. But if you compare over a few years, many people have fallen behind and have a lot of catching up to do.
My wage has not budged in four fucking years and no wages in Oklahoma have gone up if anything they going down.
My company will not give raises and I get paid more than any other person in my field and it isn’t enough.
They literally offering jobs here at 12 an hour you be lucky to see 15 with bunch bullshit stipulations.
I’m sorry that some states are shitholes, with shitty people trying to make them shittier. I live in one too.
Low taxes, but low benefits to its citizens, so people don’t really want to live there. Poor healthcare, poor education, fewer opportunities for the arts and the things that make life worth livin’. It’s a cycle of poverty and despair, and it’s awful.
When I get money, I’m moving out. But I may never have enough money.
Cool, you’re an outlier. Get out of here with anecdotes and come back with real data.
Come Oklahoma asshole better yet look up jobs here and see what they pay. It isn’t shit. Not outliner go look at fucking jobs and what they pay. All the data you need is right there.
NO ONE IS PAYING A FUCKING LIVING WAGE. Homeless is going up everything is but fucking pay. So full of shit. Show your data and not from propaganda machine that is mainstream media.
Tell me about it. It seems like no one looks at job postings to see what companies are actually hiring at.
If they do it’s selective to their profession, or across highly educated professions. Then they can argue “well, git gud scrub.” Completely ignoring how a gigantic portion of the population is stuck working those shit paying jobs.
Wage data doesn’t come from the mainstream media you dope
Lol
Look, peasants, wages have gone up by slightly less than 1% for reasons having nothing to do with the government, be grateful!
They went down in the 1970s and 1980s, and stagnated in 2000s, the last decade of growth hasn’t been seen since the 1990s
I definitely agree with you about the data, but people’s feelings do matter, that’s why we’re currently experiencing a vibecession.
Why would people’s feelings matter when the economy is actually good? The vibecession is literally a Conservative psyop
The entire stock market is based off investor’s feelings so why shouldn’t that also apply to the rest of the economy when market performance is a primary data point when measuring how the economy is doing?
Why isn’t the stock market down
People’s feelings affect how they act. Those actions, collectively, can have an impact on the economy (recession spending can cause a recession), politics (especially with elections in 6 months), and society in general. As they say, “perception creates reality.”
Why aren’t people saving up for a recession? They are spending at a very healthy level
Consumer and credit card debt would like a word.
People making bad decisions is being the scope of this discussion.
Yeah, fixed doesn’t mean everything is better; it means things are on trajectory/no longer getting worse
People don’t understand the damage Trump did and how long it will take to undo it. It’s much longer than Biden’s second term
I know, right? Buying food is such a bad decision.
Interesting link, you should start a discussion about it.
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