Zweibel would be two Bel (or two Decibel, converted to the better known unit) if you forgot about your space key.

Surely you mean Zwiebel.

I’ve found a proper approximation after some time and some searching.

Since the binomial distribution has a very large n, we can use the central limit theorem and treat it as a normal distribution. The mean would be obviously 500 billion, the standard deviation is √(n * p * (1-p)) which results in 500,000.

You still cannot plug that into WA unfortunately so we have to use a workaround.

You would calculate it manually through:

Φ(b) - Φ(a), with
b = (510 billion - mean) / (standard deviation) = 20,000
and
a = (490 billion - mean) / (standard deviation) = -20,000
and
Φ(x) = 0.5 * (1 + erf(x/√2))

erf(x) is the error function which has the neat property: erf(-x) = -erf(x)

You could replace erf(x) with an integral but this would be illegible without LaTeX.

Therefore:

Φ(20,000) - Φ(-20,000)
= 0.5 * [ erf(20,000/√2) - erf(-20,000/√2) ]
= erf(20,000/√2)
≈ erf(14,142)

WolframAlpha will unfortunately not calculate this either.

However, according to Wikipedia an approximation exists which shows that:

1 - erf(x) ≈ [(1 - e^(-Ax))e^(-x²)] / (Bx√π)

And apparently A = 1.98 and B = 1.135 give good approximations for all x≥0.

After failing to get a proper approximation from WA again and having to calculate every part by itself, the result is very roughly around 1 - 10^(-86,857,234).

So it is very safe to assume you will lose between 49% and 51% of your gut bacteria. For a more realistic 10 trillion you should replace a and b above with around ±63,200 but I don’t want to bother calculating the rest and having WolframAlpha tell me my intermediary steps are equal to zero.

To expand a little:

For a much smaller sample size of just 1 million, the probability to lose just 1% off of the median is basically zero.

WolframAlpha doesn’t even bother to calculate the exact result and just rounds it:

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=P[490000+<+X+<+510000]+for+X~B(1000000%2C0.5)

To be fair, people with tumors behind their ears will likely hide it to avoid assholes staring/taking pictures. I don’t see many cancer patients attending chemotherapy either because they are wearing hats/wigs.

Still, shouldn’t they get cancer on their hands instead? That’s the closest body part to your phone at any time on average, isn’t it?

The walls of the echo-chamber have been built up and reinforced for over a decade. No single election cycle will ever pierce through.

These people are lost causes unless a massive culture shift happens. And it’s not looking like that will happen in the next decades. You, just like other countries, will have to deal with a growing strong block of far right, young men who will grow up to be far right seniors.

The warning signs started being obvious with Gamergate but they were ignored. The only thing that can be done is preventing the growth of these echo-chambers but the damage is done. It’s just like how carbon capture will not solve climate change, only stopping emitting more as soon as possible.

That… doesn’t seem overwhelming?

In the city council election I voted in (Germany) you had ~40 votes (don’t remember the exact number) to distribute among candidates. Each party put up to ~40 candidates on the ballot and you had to distribute your vote among the candidates. You received like 10 ballots, with each party being on a separate one and had to cast your vote in an envelope with the relevant ballots.

Additionally, you can give up to 3 of your votes to any one candidate by putting a digit next to their name or just cast one party’s ballot without entering anything to give one vote to each candidate on that ballot.

Sure, it sounds complicated but you received the ballots with some information two weeks before the election and were encouraged to bring them filled out to the polling station (to reduce waiting time) or register for mail-in voting. Most people probably just casted their entire vote for one party anyways.

These suggestion all sound quite bland and corporate though. GIMP isn’t a great name but better than all of those in my opinion.

A better change should be more like Minetest becoming Luanti. Here is what ChatGPT came up with instead:

• BlockCraft
• Voxelverse
• Craftopia
• TerraForge
• VoxelQuest

These are horrible compared to Luanti.

And an archive would be doing exactly that: Distributing copyrighted materials.

Moving to Europe is not necessarily a great idea depending on the country they choose. US copyright law is comparatively lenient to some European countries, who can be said to be (much more) controlled by publishers when it comes to copyright.

Depebding on the country, Europe has significantly worse copyright law than the US, to the extent that archiving a web page is illegal.

Fun fact:

In Germany you have to pay a special tax for anything that could be used to violate copyright. It ranges from 0.10€ for USB sticks to 90€ for faster printers to 14,000,000€ for opening up a public library - all going to a bunch of publisher organizations.

I wish it polled for each possible position:

• Harris/Trump increasing/decreasing support for Israel

Don’t worry, the youth will only become further right-wing.

Here’s the result of a local German state election from September. It displays the results for people aged 18-24, divided into male (light) and female (dark). AfD is openly fascist. No other age group voted for them as much. Getting 46% in a system with proportional representation is basically unheard of by the way.

I very much suspect this trend will continue.

Why then do countries with existing left parties and proportional representation elect further and further right-wing parties in Europe?

It’s simple: They promise easy solutions for complicated problems. Banning immigration will fix all crime and the economy, opposing LGBTQ+ rights will ensure a return of the better olden days, climate change is nothing to be worried about etc etc

And even people depending on social support will gladly shoot themselves in their feet if it means someone else will have it worse.

And so claimed my German ancestors.

Yet none of them fled the country, none of them joined the small, albeit existing resistance, none of those conscripted deserted the military and none of them claimed to have responsibility. Curious, isn’t it? Everybody seemed to have clean hands because only a few thousand people directly orchestrated the Holocaust. The fact that it could only happen due to both mass support and mass toleration is ignored.

Considering my instance is registered on “.de,” you have 3 guesses as to what my nationality is and who I voted for in the US election.

And I did not claim you are a Nazi. I claimed that you cannot absolve yourself from responsibility if your country commits or aids a genocide.

Everyone’s hands are clean. The workers at Raytheon producing weapons that kills Palestinians, the people who finance that through taxes, whoever flies the plane or steers the ship delivering the weapons to Israel and even the American soldiers training Israeli forces with the new weapons.

Everyone of you can give plenty of reasons why they’re not at fault. My German ancestors did the same in 1945. They “didn’t know” or they couldn’t have done anything against it or they voted for the social democrats in the last election or or or…

Maybe inflicting violence on the mics and giving blowjobs to the techs would work?

You’re right in some regard though I still believe taking note of trends is important, don’t you? If most pre-record civilizations we find have behaved and lived in a certain way it could tell us something notable about our past.

That’s what I thought too, but wouldn’t it be mentioned somewhere in the article? Like a line saying:

“The city government plans to demolish the bridge due to risk of collapse.”

But why though?

Blind serbian nationalism would be my guess but there seems to be more. Why now and why dismantle a working bridge without replacement?

Hey baby… wanna watch Jellyfin and dismantle the patriarchy?