In the voting booth, incumbents ALWAYS have a MASSIVE advantage.
Polling is incredibly unreliable. That is people that pick up the phone and talk to pollsters. Do you know anyone under 60 who does that? Additionally, a lot of those calls are on landlines. How many people do you know who have landlines? How many of those are under 60?
The polls are heavily skewed towards boomers. This is the last election where boomers will be relevant. Millennials and Gen Z matter more in this election than ever before.
Replacing an incumbent 3-4 months before an election is the stupidest fucking idea since trickle down economics.
A “web panel”? You are suggesting that polling done via “web panel” is reliable?
So, these’s this bridge that I’ve been meaning to show you. It seems right up your alley, it’s cheap too!
Edit: fuck me, is this a fucking twitter poll???
Double edit: nope, a twitter poll would actually be more reliable. https://www.dataforprogress.org/our-methodology