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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • Russia doesn’t need the Crimean oil reserves, it’s more than they wanted Ukraine to not have it. Even then, energy security wasn’t as much a motivator as was securing access to Sevastopol, a critical warm water port and the only place capable of housing the black sea fleet. Although control of that port, in turn, is largely to do with projecting energy control over a wider region.

    Russia was leasing Sevastopol from Ukraine (til 2042). It had become increasingly important to Russia’s other objectives being a staging location for supporting the incursion into Georgia, and also Russia’s involvement in Syria. Both of which are key to Russia’s broader goal of region control and energy security (not Ukraine per se).

    It may be that Russia was far more sensitive to EU membership than NATO because EU membership travelled much faster and was already outflanking them.

    In the early 2000’s, increasing ineffectiveness of the old Soviet style leadership in Georgia was bankrupting the country and making corruption rife. This was increasingly apparent to international businesses there and a student population that enjoyed (somewhat miraculously) the relatively free press in the form of TV stations critical of the regime and its corruption.

    Subsequently, foreign NGO presence helped organise and contribute to the peaceful 2003 Rose Revolution which saw the older soviet influence brushed away in favour of new democratic parties.

    The new leadership sought to put Georgia on better economic footing and in 2006 together with the EU issued a statement on the 5 year Georgia-European Union Action Plan within the European Neighbourhood Policy which was a major snub to Russia.

    Russia’s desire to maintain a foothold within Georgia subsequently provoked the 2008 Russia Georgian War over Georgia’s northern ‘South Ossetia’ region. Not only because Georgia is the gateway to projecting power into the Middle East, but more immediately because in 2006 Georgia opened the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline which cut Iran and Russia out of the picture and connected Azerbaijan oil fields up directly with EU friendly Turkey.

    Russia failed to make anyway headway with their support of South Ossetia

    In 2013, Georgia and the EU took the next step in closer alignment, an Association Agreement

    With efforts to expand influence into the Caucasus region curtailed and weakening in power to project strength over energy producing regions, Russia saw the need to secure Sevastopol as becoming critical.

    The Ukrainian parliament had begun legal alignment with the EU the same year.

    Hence in 2014, Russia took Crimea.

    (If you look at the map of EU plus Georgia, you can see how close EU alignment could be seen to have ‘provoked’ Russia to act. Though very much only in the sense that they are anti democratic and imperialist)



  • Unstable for a variety of historical reasons…

    Original primitive animist beliefs and Christian groups seem to have amalgamated in the first centuries CE.

    The region was overcome by Islam coming from the Arab peninsula which then dominated its northern population centres and set up slave raid expeditions to the predominately animist / Christian south.

    In the 1800s Egypt had taken control of the region and then Britain by virtue of their control over Egypt.

    When Egypt rebelled and demanded independence from Britain in the 1950s the (soon to be) president demanded the same for the Sudan region as he was Sudanese. It’s unclear if Sudan was remotely ready for this kind of independence the way Egypt was.

    Discovery of oil and a predominantly conservative Islamic Arab northern population has caused Sudan to function like a gulf petro-state with about half of its economy being due to gold / oil extraction but very little of this helping the general population which remains in crushing poverty.

    More extreme Islam since 1983 has seen academic independence suppressed (authors, poets imprisoned, islamic studies mandatory if studying anything etc).

    Sudan’s list of civil wars (Darfur etc) are generally characterised as animist / christian resistance movements against an oppressive islamic government. (Or, to take an opposite view, are wars of conquest by a disenfranchised rural population because in Sudan’s petro economy, the controller of Khartoum is winner takes all)

    Animist / Christian South Sudan finally managed independence in 2011. The peace apparently being bolstered by the economic coercion of gulf and Chinese corporations who seek a peaceful extraction of South Sudan’s oil…

    TL;DR blame Britain, or conservative Islam, depending on how long it’s been since you were a student



  • While Russia is the belligerent actor and it is their fault, pre-2014 Ukraine was hardly “neutral”, having mulled both NATO and EU ascension discussions. The latter being the actual provocation rather than the former. (This isn’t at all to say any of this is Ukraine’s “fault”, only to point out they were not “neutral”)

    In early 2013 the Ukrainian parliament agreed to make legal steps towards EU ascension (source 2014 pro Russia unrest in Ukraine)

    Which is what Lord Robertson, the former Secretary General of Nato, has stated was the start of the crisis:

    "One theory, propounded by realists such as the academic John Mearsheimer, is that Nato expansion in eastern Europe was the reason that Putin invaded Ukraine. Robertson dismissed the idea. “I met Putin nine times during my time at Nato. He never mentioned Nato enlargement once.” What Robertson said next was interesting: “He’s not bothered about Nato, or Nato enlargement. He’s bothered by the European Union. The whole Ukraine crisis started with the offer of an EU accession agreement to Ukraine in 2014.

    Putin fears countries on Russia’s border being “fundamentally and permanently” changed by EU accession. “Every aspect [of society is affected] – they woke up very late to it… I don’t think they ever fully understood the EU,” Robertson said, adding the caveat that the EU was not at fault because accession was what Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, wanted." [end quote]

    Source: https://www.newstatesman.com/encounter/2024/05/george-robertson-nato-why-russia-fears-european-union




  • Bezos + Lauren Sanchez apparently binge watch Fallout, Baby Reindeer, Presumed Innocent and Severance…

    “My favorite time is when the house is calm and quiet and Jeff and I are deciding what show we’re going to binge that night,” Sánchez told the magazine.

    “It takes a little bit of time to decide,” she added. “You can imagine our tastes are a little different. But I love our TV time, we just have the best time.”

    Among their favorites is “Fallout” – a post-apocalyptic drama based on the video game series of the same name. The series airs on Bezos’s own Amazon Prime TV. But the couple also watches shows on rival platforms Netflix and Apple TV.

    “We recently saw Baby Reindeer, which of course everyone saw,” Sánchez told People. “We also just finished Presumed Innocent, which was incredible. Oh, and we loved Severance.”

    https://qz.com/lauren-sanchez-jeff-bezos-reveal-favorite-tv-shows-1851636860





  • Even now and then it just catches me how absolutely insane it is how long the planet sustained complex life without any humans whatsoever. We’re an evolutionary accident. A footnote consequence of unlikely circumstance. Were it not for a number of unlikely destructive events this planet might have quite happily continued ad infinitum with only dinosaurs on it. Can you imagine that, if this whole universe had happened and this one random blue marble had dinosaurs on it and not a single minded being anywhere to appreciate the magnificent insanity of it all?