The U.S. national debt surpassed $34 trillion this week, marking a grim milestone as federal debt continues to rise at a record pace under persistent annual deficits, according to the Treasury Department.
This is because it doesn’t really matter. We could just mint a few trillion dollar coins if we had to to make a payment on it. We probably would only get 1/2 the inflation we did coming out of the pandemic as a lot of that was geopolitics that’s already priced in now, though corporate greed is another matter. We also could just revert a bunch of the tax cuts from the last 20 years or so, and probably make a dent in the deficit if not get to a surplus again.
My limited understanding is that economists are divided around if too high a debt percentage is what led to Japan’s stagflation, but from what I’ve read the US had that since the 70s already in real wage terms, so would it actually be a change to most people? And it’s not like Japan is some failed hellscape - it’s a huge economy with a pretty decent standard of living from what I can tell.
I still maintain so much of this is driven by thinking there isn’t some limit here - like we talk about “tiny” GDP growth compared to developing economies without realizing that if you start at $1, it’s easy to have 500% growth in a year, but each year the absolute amount of growth needed to hit that percentage goes up. The US only managing to grow 1% on a what, 30 trillion GDP is actually 300 billion, which is a huge absolute amount. That’s like an entire Merck, Costco, or Adobe each year added enmasse.
This is because it doesn’t really matter. We could just mint a few trillion dollar coins if we had to to make a payment on it. We probably would only get 1/2 the inflation we did coming out of the pandemic as a lot of that was geopolitics that’s already priced in now, though corporate greed is another matter. We also could just revert a bunch of the tax cuts from the last 20 years or so, and probably make a dent in the deficit if not get to a surplus again.
My limited understanding is that economists are divided around if too high a debt percentage is what led to Japan’s stagflation, but from what I’ve read the US had that since the 70s already in real wage terms, so would it actually be a change to most people? And it’s not like Japan is some failed hellscape - it’s a huge economy with a pretty decent standard of living from what I can tell.
I still maintain so much of this is driven by thinking there isn’t some limit here - like we talk about “tiny” GDP growth compared to developing economies without realizing that if you start at $1, it’s easy to have 500% growth in a year, but each year the absolute amount of growth needed to hit that percentage goes up. The US only managing to grow 1% on a what, 30 trillion GDP is actually 300 billion, which is a huge absolute amount. That’s like an entire Merck, Costco, or Adobe each year added enmasse.