Ohioans vote Tuesday on a measure that would make it harder to pass future changes to the state constitution. Ideastream’s Karen Kasler explains the possible implications for abortion access in Ohio.
Sources:
NPR: A look ahead at the Ohio special election
Five Thirty Eight: Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio Ballot Measure That Could Block Abortion Rights
CNN: Ohio special election becomes proxy for abortion rights fight
PBS News Hour: Ohio voters to decide on constitutional change before determining abortion rights
The Guardian: Republicans pushed a special election in Ohio – what does it mean for abortion rights?
AP: Voters in Ohio reject GOP-backed proposal that would have made it tougher to protect abortion rights
NY Times: Ohio Voters Reject Constitutional Change Intended to Thwart Abortion Amendment
AP projects issue 1 is defeated.
This is a seems somewhat hopeful sign about the current electorate. And turnout looks much better than anticipated. 40% in many areas so far. For a special election, that’s very high.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/2023/ohio-issue-1/
Votes received and percentages of total vote
Response Votes Pct.
Yes 111,710 28.4 %
No 281,694 71.6 %
An estimated 12.6 percent of votes have been counted.As of 7:50 PM right now.
Edit 1: 7:53 PM
Yes 138,143 29.4 %
No 331,325 70.6 %Edit 2: 7:55 PM
Yes 158,861 29.1 %
No 387,174 70.9 %17.5% counted.
Edit 3: 8:04 PM
Yes 193,220 29.7 %
No 457,553 70.3 %20.8% counted.
Edit 4: 8:19 PM
Yes 232,355 30.9 %
No 519,368 69.1 %24.1% counted. Yeah I don’t see it passing.
Edit 5: 8:25 PM
Wasserman and Decision Desk already called it for No. Will see how big of a margin now, but it is clear the proposition failed.
Edit 6: 8:48 PM
Yes 376,012 37.1 %
No 638,696 62.9 %32.5% counted.
Edit 7: 8:56 PM
Washington Post projects No winning.
Yes 429,617 38.1 %
No 697,980 61.9 %36.9% counted.
Edit 8: 9:15 PM
Yes 603,050 40.7 %
No 878,360 59.3 %47.4% counted. Keep in mind a lot of the urban/city areas haven’t even counted most of their votes yet where the more rural areas have.
Edit 9: 9:22 PM
Yes 744,053 42.5 %
No 1,006,127 57.5 %56% counted.
Edit 10: 9:30 PM
Yes 809,110 42.8 %
No 1,082,764 57.2 %60.5 % counted. Urban areas still undercounted.
Edit 11: 10:06 PM
Yes 1,100,677 43.2 %
No 1,448,086 56.8 %81.5% counted.
I really hope the numbers stay at these levels. This issue needs to not only fail, it needs to be demolished with extreme prejudice. The goons who put this on the ballot need to see that they are absolutely on the wrong side of history.
Good analysis as usual from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-issue-1-abortion-ballot-measures/
For those who haven’t seen coverage yet, in brief: as usual republicans saw a defeat coming in a democratic election (the 50%+1 threshold November ballot initiative to enshrine reproductive rights into Ohio’s constitution), so they are attempting to change the rules in their favor (require constitutional amendments to get 60% of the vote, effectively allowing minority rule) in an early off-season ballot measure today.
Despite the early positive indications that this measure has an uphill battle, if you are in Ohio please vote.
OK, these numbers are looking remarkably good. Definitely exceeding predictions that already had the measure being soundly defeated.
So I have to wonder… How far off are the polls nationally? We know the Republican party is shrinking, and we know that polls are getting harder to do because people under 50 tend not to answer cellphone calls from numbers they don’t know.
Is it possible that next year will actually be a landslide for both Biden and Democrats in the House and Senate? I don’t want to get too hopeful, but Ohio’s kind of a bellwether, and this… This looks good. This looks very good.
Every year, 4 million people are newly eligible to vote as they turn 18, while 2.5 million people over the age of 65 lose their ability to vote due to death.
I personally think Biden wins by 80%
Republicans have near zero support in the United States and the 2024 election will be an embarrassment for them.
80% is a serious exaggeration. At least 25% of the electorate would vote for Trump even if he ate a baby on live television.
The entire country is metro areas, suburbs, college towns, and everything else is rural Arkansas. Florida just gets that added bonus of the Sunshine Laws that do so well to expose the crazies in an efficient manner. Florida overall has not actually been full on red for decades (maybe conservative tinted, but not R red), even if it kinda feels like it.
I actually think you should make it somewhat difficult to do direct democracy votes. There was a crisis in California a while back because the voters decided to mandate taxes don’t go up, and also spending does go up substantially. As separate propositions, both things sound good, but the reason for little-r republican representation is that if your legislator did both those things and caused a crisis you would vote them out. People in charge of institutions have longer term responsibility.
Or look at Brexit where a slight majority voted for it and a majority now regret it since it caused all the economic pain and political chaos everyone was saying it would.
So I think there is an argument for the threshold being above 50%, I think 60% is pretty high but you can make the argument, maybe something in the middle is reasonable. Preferable to me is something like a double approval process…any amendment needs to get approved by 50%+, followed by a mandatory vote in the legislature and if confirmed it would become law, but if it fails it would get another public vote where it would need to get 50%+ and if it got it, become law.
All that said, I don’t want abortion banned in Ohio, I know that’s pretty heavily a part of this vote in particular but just wanted to talk about the actual argument for a bit.
Let’s vote Ohio! I am in Alabama but I am very interested in this.
