I think the US has already achieved it and aren’t saying anything.
Think how much money they’ve poured in there over the decades, as much as the rest of the world combined.
They were working on directed energy weapons in the 80s to neutralise them from space, but the tech was ‘decades away’. They had a working pilot way back in 2000 too.
The problem is that with the MAD doctrine, it’s not about neutrajazing a warning shot where a tactical nuke would neutralise an aircraft carrier fleet or an tank division. It’s about dozens if not hundred of nuke flying to your country.
Even 80% efficiency in the counter measure would mean remove 10 of the 50 big cities from the map. This has drastic consequences for a country. Especially in a hyper connected, advanced industry society
If you announce it, there are often counter measures to the counter measures. Once the enemy knows, the reliability begins to degrade. E.g. mirror finishes can disperse laser strikes, jinking can doge orbital rail guns, or dummy submunitions can overwhelm interceptor shields. Yes, these can be countered in turn, but you now have a new technological arms race.
There’s also the first strike problem. If you are going to be invulnerable, then a first strike might be reasonable, before the system comes online. This was actually part of the reason the “Slam” project was stopped (a viable, but utterly batshit insane weapon system). They were worried that if the USSR got wind of it, they might decide a first strike, before it came online, was the only reasonable response.
Arguably, you don’t tell them, and they don’t try to steal the idea, or try to sabotage it, or decide to build was plans that don’t depends on a successful nuclear strike.
I heard that everyone basically built nukes really fast because they suddenly discovered it was possible. The theory was pretty common among scientists but only when the first one was built they all got to work.
I seem to recall reading that a German scientist did the experiment that lead directly to the atom bomb before we did our in the US, but that he misinterpreted the results, and tossed the whole line of research.
One of the biggest challenges when creating something new is in not knowing whether or not it’s possible. Once you know, you can just keep pouring resources into it and know with near certainty that you’ll eventually hit your goal. Since the US already has so many other tools for avoiding a nuclear strike, there’s no reason to publicise a new one. Keep it for when the other tools fail, or else everyone else will also have it and you lose your advantage before you could use it.
I think the US has already achieved it and aren’t saying anything.
Think how much money they’ve poured in there over the decades, as much as the rest of the world combined.
They were working on directed energy weapons in the 80s to neutralise them from space, but the tech was ‘decades away’. They had a working pilot way back in 2000 too.
The problem is that with the MAD doctrine, it’s not about neutrajazing a warning shot where a tactical nuke would neutralise an aircraft carrier fleet or an tank division. It’s about dozens if not hundred of nuke flying to your country.
Even 80% efficiency in the counter measure would mean remove 10 of the 50 big cities from the map. This has drastic consequences for a country. Especially in a hyper connected, advanced industry society
They definitely have not. Not publicizing a fool proof nuclear counter-measure defeats the purpose of achieving it in the first place.
You’d MUCH rather your opponent know a nuke strike is pointless, rather than they try and later be surprised that only one lucky one got through.
If made public there’d be attempts to sabotage the system that they’re avoiding.
It depends on the reliability.
If you announce it, there are often counter measures to the counter measures. Once the enemy knows, the reliability begins to degrade. E.g. mirror finishes can disperse laser strikes, jinking can doge orbital rail guns, or dummy submunitions can overwhelm interceptor shields. Yes, these can be countered in turn, but you now have a new technological arms race.
There’s also the first strike problem. If you are going to be invulnerable, then a first strike might be reasonable, before the system comes online. This was actually part of the reason the “Slam” project was stopped (a viable, but utterly batshit insane weapon system). They were worried that if the USSR got wind of it, they might decide a first strike, before it came online, was the only reasonable response.
Arguably, you don’t tell them, and they don’t try to steal the idea, or try to sabotage it, or decide to build was plans that don’t depends on a successful nuclear strike.
I heard that everyone basically built nukes really fast because they suddenly discovered it was possible. The theory was pretty common among scientists but only when the first one was built they all got to work.
I seem to recall reading that a German scientist did the experiment that lead directly to the atom bomb before we did our in the US, but that he misinterpreted the results, and tossed the whole line of research.
One of the biggest challenges when creating something new is in not knowing whether or not it’s possible. Once you know, you can just keep pouring resources into it and know with near certainty that you’ll eventually hit your goal. Since the US already has so many other tools for avoiding a nuclear strike, there’s no reason to publicise a new one. Keep it for when the other tools fail, or else everyone else will also have it and you lose your advantage before you could use it.
yeah but if they don’t tell anyone they can keep it secret and other countries wouldn’t try to make their own
Spies are still a thing. Security by obfuscation only works when nobody is looking specifically at you.
Not if the technology is relatively unknown. I mean, maybe if you were alturistic.
Ok, how do you feel about elon musk (and subsequently russia) gaining access to some of our most classified data.