• FundMECFSResearch@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      3 months ago

      A poll is just an estimate. Obviously we will never know. But were the election held a couple months ago (vs Biden) Trump would have about an 85% chance of winning according to the best statistical models. (Source: used to work as data scientist for a major pollster and obsess over this stuff for fun)

      • seth@lemmy.world
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        3 months ago

        What were the projected odds for Clinton beating Trump in 2016? I remembered it being nearly a sure thing in the reported research polls but I may be remembering it completely wrong.

          • seth@lemmy.world
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            3 months ago

            Yeah that’s much worse than I thought. I also remember thinking, “there’s no way that many people are so willfully ignorant and will also vote.” How wrong I was.